← all past elections
Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Iowa Senate
In the 2016 Iowa Senate race, Chuck Grassley (R) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
R+24.4
Final polls said
R+19.7
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | R+23.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+28.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+18.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | R+18.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+17.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | R+16.2 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Lucid | R+12.0 | 12.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
12 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-046
Selzer & Co.2016-11-031
Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center2016-11-028
Emerson College2016-11-024
SurveyMonkey2016-10-289
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Iowa Senate race?
Chuck Grassley (R) won, by about 24.4 points (R+24.4).
When was the 2016 Iowa Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.