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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Iowa Senate
In the 2016 Iowa Senate race, Chuck Grassley (R) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
R+24.4
Final polls said
R+19.7
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | R+23.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+28.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+18.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | R+18.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+17.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | R+16.2 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Lucid | R+12.0 | 12.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
12 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-046
Selzer & Co.2016-11-031
Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center2016-11-028
Emerson College2016-11-024
SurveyMonkey2016-10-289
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Iowa Senate race?
Chuck Grassley (R) won, by about 24.4 points (R+24.4).
When was the 2016 Iowa Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.