Actual result
R+24.4
Final polls said
R+19.7
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | R+23.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+21.1 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+28.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+18.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quinnipiac University | R+18.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+17.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | R+16.2 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Lucid | R+12.0 | 12.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1781 | R+18.0 | 6 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-11-03 | 800 | R+23.0 | 1 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-11-02 | 500 | R+16.2 | 8 |
| Emerson College | 2016-11-02 | 700 | R+28.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 984 | R+15.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-23 | 791 | R+18.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1135 | R+16.0 | 8 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-09 | 917 | R+12.0 | 12 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-10-05 | 642 | R+17.0 | 7 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-09-21 | 491 | R+17.1 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-17 | 612 | R+12.0 | 12 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-09-13 | 404 | R+17.0 | 7 |