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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Illinois Senate
In the 2016 Illinois Senate race, Tammy Duckworth (D) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
D+15.1
Final polls said
D+14.4
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | D+14.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | D+17.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+17.5 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Victory Research | D+10.7 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+9.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+8.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | GS Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-042
Emerson College2016-10-292
SurveyMonkey2016-10-284
Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center2016-10-267
Victory Research2016-10-174
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Illinois Senate race?
Tammy Duckworth (D) won, by about 15.1 points (D+15.1).
When was the 2016 Illinois Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.