Actual result
D+15.1
Final polls said
D+14.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+13.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | D+14.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | D+17.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+13.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+17.5 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Victory Research | D+10.7 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+9.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+8.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | GS Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1823 | D+17.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-29 | 500 | D+17.5 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1003 | D+19.0 | 4 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-10-26 | 600 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| Victory Research | 2016-10-17 | 1200 | D+10.7 | 4 |
| GS Strategy Group | 2016-10-04 | 600 | D+4.0 | 11 |
| Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | 2016-09-29 | 865 | D+14.4 | 1 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2016-09-28 | 600 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-20 | 700 | D+1.7 | 13 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-09-15 | 600 | D+4.7 | 10 |