← all past elections
Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Illinois Senate
In the 2016 Illinois Senate race, Tammy Duckworth (D) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
D+15.1
Final polls said
D+14.4
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | D+14.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | D+17.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+17.5 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Victory Research | D+10.7 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+9.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+8.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | GS Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-042
Emerson College2016-10-292
SurveyMonkey2016-10-284
Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center2016-10-267
Victory Research2016-10-174
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Illinois Senate race?
Tammy Duckworth (D) won, by about 15.1 points (D+15.1).
When was the 2016 Illinois Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.