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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Indiana Senate
In the 2016 Indiana Senate race, Todd Young (R) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
R+9.7
Final polls said
R+2.5
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+11.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+5.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | EVEN | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | Lucid | D+3.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | Ball State University Bowen Center for Public Affairs | D+6.0 | 15.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-041
Public Opinion Strategies2016-11-025
Gravis Marketing2016-10-3113
Monmouth University Polling Institute2016-10-2910
SurveyMonkey2016-10-286
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Indiana Senate race?
Todd Young (R) won, by about 9.7 points (R+9.7).
When was the 2016 Indiana Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.