Actual result
R+9.7
Final polls said
R+2.5
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+11.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+5.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+4.7 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | EVEN | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | Lucid | D+3.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Ball State University Bowen Center for Public Affairs | D+6.0 | 15.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1700 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-11-02 | 600 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-31 | 399 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-29 | 402 | EVEN | 10 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 674 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-23 | 596 | D+2.0 | 12 |
| Ball State University Bowen Center for Public Affairs | 2016-10-13 | 544 | D+6.0 | 16 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-12 | 402 | D+6.0 | 16 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-09 | 1123 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-10-04 | 600 | D+1.0 | 11 |