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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Indiana Senate
In the 2016 Indiana Senate race, Todd Young (R) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
R+9.7
Final polls said
R+2.5
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+11.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+5.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | EVEN | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | Lucid | D+3.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | Ball State University Bowen Center for Public Affairs | D+6.0 | 15.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 79% | 0.043 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-041
Public Opinion Strategies2016-11-025
Gravis Marketing2016-10-3113
Monmouth University Polling Institute2016-10-2910
SurveyMonkey2016-10-286
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Indiana Senate race?
Todd Young (R) won, by about 9.7 points (R+9.7).
When was the 2016 Indiana Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.