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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Kansas Senate
In the 2016 Kansas Senate race, Jerry Moran (R) won by about 30 points.
Actual result
R+29.9
Final polls said
R+31.8
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+24.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+22.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | R+64.0 | 34.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-048
Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs2016-11-0234
SurveyUSA2016-10-286
SurveyMonkey2016-10-2813
SurveyUSA2016-10-135
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Kansas Senate race?
Jerry Moran (R) won, by about 29.9 points (R+29.9).
When was the 2016 Kansas Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.