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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Kansas Senate
In the 2016 Kansas Senate race, Jerry Moran (R) won by about 30 points.
Actual result
R+29.9
Final polls said
R+31.8
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+24.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+22.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | R+64.0 | 34.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-048
Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs2016-11-0234
SurveyUSA2016-10-286
SurveyMonkey2016-10-2813
SurveyUSA2016-10-135
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Kansas Senate race?
Jerry Moran (R) won, by about 29.9 points (R+29.9).
When was the 2016 Kansas Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.