Actual result
R+29.9
Final polls said
R+31.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+28.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+28.9 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+24.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+22.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | R+64.0 | 34.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1311 | R+22.0 | 8 |
| Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | 2016-11-02 | 313 | R+64.0 | 34 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-28 | 596 | R+24.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1273 | R+17.0 | 13 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-13 | 549 | R+25.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-09-08 | 565 | R+16.0 | 14 |