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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Kentucky Senate
In the 2016 Kentucky Senate race, Rand Paul (R) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
R+14.6
Final polls said
R+8.9
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center | R+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | R+9.7 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+4.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-0411
SurveyMonkey2016-10-289
Cygnal2016-10-275
Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center2016-10-271
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Kentucky Senate race?
Rand Paul (R) won, by about 14.6 points (R+14.6).
When was the 2016 Kentucky Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.