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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Kentucky Senate
In the 2016 Kentucky Senate race, Rand Paul (R) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
R+14.6
Final polls said
R+8.9
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center | R+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | R+9.7 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+4.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-0411
SurveyMonkey2016-10-289
Cygnal2016-10-275
Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center2016-10-271
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Kentucky Senate race?
Rand Paul (R) won, by about 14.6 points (R+14.6).
When was the 2016 Kentucky Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.