Actual result
R+14.6
Final polls said
R+8.9
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center | R+16.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+12.4 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cygnal | R+9.7 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+4.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1315 | R+4.0 | 11 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 424 | R+6.0 | 9 |
| Cygnal | 2016-10-27 | 811 | R+9.7 | 5 |
| Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center | 2016-10-27 | 602 | R+16.0 | 1 |