Actual result
R+21.3
Final polls said
R+21.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+25.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucid | R+19.6 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+18.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+25.3 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Trafalgar Group | R+16.1 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Southern Media & Opinion Research | R+14.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | R+29.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | 2016-12-06 | 776 | R+29.0 | 8 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-12-05 | 2500 | R+16.1 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2016-11-29 | 400 | R+18.0 | 3 |
| Southern Media & Opinion Research | 2016-11-29 | 500 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-11-16 | 2200 | R+23.1 | 2 |
| Lucid | 2016-11-13 | 960 | R+19.6 | 2 |