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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Louisiana Senate
In the 2016 Louisiana Senate race, John Kennedy (R) won by about 21 points.
Actual result
R+21.3
Final polls said
R+21.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucid | R+19.6 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+18.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+16.1 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Southern Media & Opinion Research | R+14.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | R+29.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Orleans Survey Research Center2016-12-068
Trafalgar Group2016-12-055
Emerson College2016-11-293
Southern Media & Opinion Research2016-11-297
Trafalgar Group2016-11-162
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Louisiana Senate race?
John Kennedy (R) won, by about 21.3 points (R+21.3).
When was the 2016 Louisiana Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.