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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Louisiana Senate
In the 2016 Louisiana Senate race, John Kennedy (R) won by about 21 points.
Actual result
R+21.3
Final polls said
R+21.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucid | R+19.6 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+18.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+16.1 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Southern Media & Opinion Research | R+14.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | R+29.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Orleans Survey Research Center2016-12-068
Trafalgar Group2016-12-055
Emerson College2016-11-293
Southern Media & Opinion Research2016-11-297
Trafalgar Group2016-11-162
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Louisiana Senate race?
John Kennedy (R) won, by about 21.3 points (R+21.3).
When was the 2016 Louisiana Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.