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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Maryland Senate
In the 2016 Maryland Senate race, Chris Van Hollen (D) won by about 25 points.
Actual result
D+25.2
Final polls said
D+33.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | D+29.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | D+30.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+31.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-046
SurveyMonkey2016-10-2810
The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement2016-09-294
Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics2016-09-195
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Maryland Senate race?
Chris Van Hollen (D) won, by about 25.2 points (D+25.2).
When was the 2016 Maryland Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.