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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Maryland Senate
In the 2016 Maryland Senate race, Chris Van Hollen (D) won by about 25 points.
Actual result
D+25.2
Final polls said
D+33.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | D+29.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | D+30.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+31.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-046
SurveyMonkey2016-10-2810
The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement2016-09-294
Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics2016-09-195
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Maryland Senate race?
Chris Van Hollen (D) won, by about 25.2 points (D+25.2).
When was the 2016 Maryland Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.