Actual result
D+25.2
Final polls said
D+33.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+30.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | D+29.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | D+30.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+30.5 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | D+31.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1216 | D+31.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 740 | D+35.0 | 10 |
| The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | 2016-09-29 | 706 | D+29.0 | 4 |
| Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | 2016-09-19 | 514 | D+30.0 | 5 |