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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Missouri Senate
In the 2016 Missouri Senate race, Roy Blunt (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.8
Final polls said
D+0.1
12 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BK Strategies | R+3.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Clarity Campaign Labs | R+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Remington Research Group | R+4.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+1.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | DFM Research | EVEN | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 8 | Emerson College | D+0.7 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 9 | SurveyMonkey | D+7.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 55% | 0.200 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
14 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-0410
Emerson College2016-11-043
Clarity Campaign Labs2016-11-011
Public Policy Polling2016-10-311
Remington Research Group2016-10-311
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Missouri Senate race?
Roy Blunt (R) won, by about 2.8 points (R+2.8).
When was the 2016 Missouri Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.