Actual result
R+2.8
Final polls said
D+0.1
12 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BK Strategies | R+3.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Clarity Campaign Labs | R+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Remington Research Group | R+4.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+1.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+0.8 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | DFM Research | EVEN | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+0.7 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 10 | SurveyMonkey | D+7.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 55% | 0.204 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1368 | D+7.0 | 10 |
| Emerson College | 2016-11-04 | 750 | D+0.7 | 3 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-11-01 | 1036 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-31 | 1083 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-31 | 1722 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-30 | 405 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-30 | 650 | EVEN | 3 |
| DFM Research | 2016-10-29 | 508 | EVEN | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 671 | D+6.0 | 9 |
| BK Strategies | 2016-10-27 | 1698 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-10-25 | 625 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-18 | 600 | D+0.4 | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-10 | 406 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-11 | 600 | D+2.0 | 5 |