Toss-up · 2016 Senate

Missouri Senate

In the 2016 Missouri Senate race, Roy Blunt (R) won by about 3 points.

Actual result

R+2.8

Final polls said

D+0.1

12 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	BK Strategies	R+3.0	0.2	✓
2	Clarity Campaign Labs	R+2.0	0.8	✓
3	Public Policy Polling	R+2.0	0.8	✓
4	Remington Research Group	R+4.0	1.2	✓
5	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+1.0	1.8	✓
6	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	R+1.0	1.8	✓
7	DFM Research	EVEN	2.8	✗
8	Emerson College	D+0.7	3.5	✗
9	SurveyMonkey	D+7.0	9.8	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 57%	0.185	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 55%	0.200	✓
5	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—