Actual result
R+5.7
Final polls said
R+1.2
24 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+6.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+6.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+6.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | High Point University Survey Research Center | R+5.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | National Research | R+7.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | R+4.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | R+4.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elon University | R+3.6 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | R+2.1 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Lucid | R+2.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 13 | Big Village | R+1.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 14 | Quinnipiac University | EVEN | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | YouGov | EVEN | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | Marist College | EVEN | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 17 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 18 | Gravis Marketing | D+1.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 19 | Selzer & Co. | D+2.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 20 | Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | D+3.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 21 | SurveyMonkey | D+4.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 22 | GQR | R+16.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (44)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-11-05 | 800 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-11-05 | 870 | EVEN | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 3126 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-11-04 | 525 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-03 | 1250 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-31 | 1169 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-31 | 525 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-30 | 659 | R+6.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-29 | 602 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1574 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-27 | 992 | EVEN | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-26 | 650 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-26 | 525 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-25 | 1273 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Elon University | 2016-10-25 | 710 | R+3.6 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-25 | 780 | EVEN | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-23 | 702 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-10-22 | 792 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-22 | 402 | R+6.0 | 0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-21 | 875 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-21 | 875 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-17 | 924 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| National Research | 2016-10-16 | 600 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-16 | 651 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-12 | 788 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 889 | D+6.0 | 12 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-10-11 | 500 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-11 | 600 | R+1.8 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-11 | 743 | EVEN | 6 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2016-10-03 | 479 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-01 | 656 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-10-01 | 805 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Elon University | 2016-09-29 | 660 | D+0.2 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-29 | 507 | EVEN | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-27 | 861 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-09-23 | 694 | D+9.0 | 15 |
| Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | 2016-09-20 | 487 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-19 | 1024 | EVEN | 6 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2016-09-19 | 404 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-09-19 | 734 | R+6.0 | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-09-18 | 782 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Elon University | 2016-09-14 | 644 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2016-09-14 | 400 | R+16.0 | 10 |
| National Research | 2016-09-11 | 679 | R+5.0 | 1 |