Toss-up · 2016 Senate

North Carolina Senate

In the 2016 North Carolina Senate race, Richard Burr (R) won by about 6 points.

Deborah K. Ross· Sitting U.S. Representative · voting record →

Actual result

R+5.7

Final polls said

R+1.2

24 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	SurveyUSA	R+6.0	0.3	✓
2	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+6.0	0.3	✓
3	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+6.0	0.3	✓
4	High Point University Survey Research Center	R+5.0	0.7	✓
5	National Research	R+7.0	1.3	✓
6	Emerson College	R+4.0	1.7	✓
7	Suffolk University	R+4.0	1.7	✓
8	Elon University	R+3.6	2.1	✓
9	Public Policy Polling	R+3.0	2.7	✓
10	Lucid	R+2.0	3.7	✓
11	The New York Times/Siena College	R+1.0	4.7	✓
12	Big Village	R+1.0	4.7	✓
13	Quinnipiac University	EVEN	5.7	✗
14	YouGov	EVEN	5.7	✗
15	Marist College	EVEN	5.7	✗
16	Rasmussen Reports	D+1.0	6.7	✗
17	Gravis Marketing	D+1.0	6.7	✗
18	Selzer & Co.	D+2.0	7.7	✗
19	Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies	D+3.0	8.7	✗
20	SurveyMonkey	D+4.0	9.7	✗
21	GQR	R+16.0	10.3	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 73%	0.073	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 65%	0.122	✓
5	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—