Actual result
D+0.1
Final polls said
D+0.9
21 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+1.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+1.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | R+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 5 | Gravis Marketing | R+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | Praecones Analytica | R+2.1 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | GBAO | D+3.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Suffolk University | R+2.8 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 10 | American Research Group | R+3.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | Emerson College | R+3.2 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+4.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | YouGov | R+4.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 14 | MassINC Polling Group | R+6.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 15 | Rasmussen Reports | D+8.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 16 | SurveyMonkey | D+9.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 58% | 0.174 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (31)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-11-05 | 692 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2016-11-04 | 1000 | R+3.2 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 696 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-11-04 | 525 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-01 | 1001 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-11-01 | 500 | R+2.8 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2016-11-01 | 600 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-11-01 | 466 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-31 | 525 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2016-10-31 | 500 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-31 | 781 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2016-10-30 | 695 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-28 | 516 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 659 | D+12.0 | 12 |
| Praecones Analytica | 2016-10-27 | 408 | R+2.1 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-26 | 525 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-24 | 600 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-24 | 401 | EVEN | 0 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-22 | 768 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-19 | 772 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-18 | 900 | R+0.1 | 0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-14 | 724 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 569 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2016-10-11 | 501 | EVEN | 0 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2016-10-09 | 517 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-08 | 600 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-10-04 | 500 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2016-09-28 | 502 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| GBAO | 2016-09-26 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2016-09-22 | 522 | EVEN | 0 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-09-19 | 400 | R+2.0 | 2 |