Toss-up · 2016 Senate

New Hampshire Senate

In the 2016 New Hampshire Senate race, Maggie Hassan (D) won by less than a point.

Maggie Hassan· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+0.1

Final polls said

D+0.9

21 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Monmouth University Polling Institute	EVEN	0.1	✗
2	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion	D+1.0	0.9	✓
3	Marist College	R+1.0	1.1	✗
4	Gravis Marketing	R+2.0	2.1	✗
5	Praecones Analytica	R+2.1	2.2	✗
6	Public Policy Polling	D+3.0	2.9	✓
7	GBAO	D+3.0	2.9	✓
8	Suffolk University	R+2.8	2.9	✗
9	American Research Group	R+3.0	3.1	✗
10	Emerson College	R+3.2	3.3	✗
11	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	D+4.0	3.9	✓
12	YouGov	R+4.0	4.1	✗
13	MassINC Polling Group	R+6.0	6.1	✗
14	Rasmussen Reports	D+8.0	7.9	✓
15	SurveyMonkey	D+9.0	8.9	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 56%	0.194	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 53%	0.221	✓
4	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
5	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.562	✗