Toss-up · 2016 Senate

Nevada Senate

In the 2016 Nevada Senate race, Catherine Cortez Masto (D) won by about 2 points.

Catherine Cortez Masto· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+2.4

Final polls said

D+1.1

17 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	JMC Analytics	D+2.0	0.4	✓
2	Public Policy Polling	D+3.0	0.6	✓
3	Clarity Campaign Labs	D+3.0	0.6	✓
4	Emerson College	D+1.1	1.3	✓
5	Bendixen & Amandi International	D+1.0	1.4	✓
6	Rasmussen Reports	EVEN	2.4	✗
7	YouGov	EVEN	2.4	✗
8	SurveyMonkey	D+5.0	2.6	✓
9	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	R+1.0	3.4	✗
10	Gravis Marketing	D+6.0	3.6	✓
11	Lucid	D+6.0	3.6	✓
12	Big Village	R+2.0	4.4	✗
13	Suffolk University	R+2.4	4.8	✗
14	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+3.0	5.4	✗
15	Public Opinion Strategies	R+3.0	5.4	✗
16	Leger	R+4.0	6.4	✗
17	GQR	R+6.0	8.4	✗
18	Marist College	R+7.0	9.4	✗
19	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+7.0	9.4	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 56%	0.196	✓
4	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
5	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—