Actual result
R+20.9
Final polls said
R+14.3
12 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Dispatch | R+21.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+20.5 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+18.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | R+18.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marist College | R+18.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+17.7 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | GQR | R+17.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Selzer & Co. | R+17.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Big Village | R+16.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Suffolk University | R+15.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Public Policy Polling | R+15.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+15.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | TargetSmart | R+15.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 14 | Rasmussen Reports | R+14.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 15 | Lucid | R+14.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 16 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+14.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 17 | YouGov | R+13.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 18 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | R+12.3 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 19 | Impact Research | R+12.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 20 | Gravis Marketing | R+8.0 | 12.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (31)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2860 | R+18.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-11-04 | 525 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2016-11-04 | 900 | R+20.5 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2016-11-03 | 1189 | R+13.0 | 8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-31 | 525 | R+8.0 | 13 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2016-10-31 | 1151 | R+21.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-29 | 589 | R+18.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1823 | R+15.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-26 | 800 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-26 | 525 | R+7.0 | 14 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-21 | 875 | R+8.0 | 13 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-10-18 | 500 | R+15.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-13 | 624 | R+13.0 | 8 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-12 | 774 | R+16.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1307 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-11 | 600 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-11 | 724 | R+18.0 | 3 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2016-10-10 | 1152 | R+12.3 | 9 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-09 | 1304 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-06 | 997 | R+11.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-05 | 782 | R+15.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-03 | 405 | R+15.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-29 | 497 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| Impact Research | 2016-09-29 | 800 | R+12.0 | 9 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-09-22 | 850 | R+8.0 | 13 |
| TargetSmart | 2016-09-19 | 652 | R+15.0 | 6 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-09-19 | 737 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2016-09-14 | 400 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-09-13 | 500 | R+8.0 | 13 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-09-11 | 802 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2016-09-09 | 769 | R+21.0 | 0 |