Toss-up · 2016 Senate

Ohio Senate

In the 2016 Ohio Senate race, Rob Portman (R) won by about 21 points.

Actual result

R+20.9

Final polls said

R+14.3

12 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Columbus Dispatch	R+21.0	0.1	✓
2	Emerson College	R+20.5	0.4	✓
3	SurveyMonkey	R+18.0	2.9	✓
4	Quinnipiac University	R+18.0	2.9	✓
5	Marist College	R+18.0	2.9	✓
6	GQR	R+17.0	3.9	✓
7	Selzer & Co.	R+17.0	3.9	✓
8	Big Village	R+16.0	4.9	✓
9	Suffolk University	R+15.0	5.9	✓
10	Public Policy Polling	R+15.0	5.9	✓
11	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+15.0	5.9	✓
12	TargetSmart	R+15.0	5.9	✓
13	Rasmussen Reports	R+14.0	6.9	✓
14	Lucid	R+14.0	6.9	✓
15	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+14.0	6.9	✓
16	YouGov	R+13.0	7.9	✓
17	Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute	R+12.3	8.6	✓
18	Impact Research	R+12.0	8.9	✓
19	Gravis Marketing	R+8.0	12.9	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
4	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
5	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓