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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Oregon Senate
In the 2016 Oregon Senate race, Ron Wyden (D) won by about 23 points.
Actual result
D+23.3
Final polls said
D+29.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+22.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+19.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+31.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-048
SurveyMonkey2016-10-285
SurveyUSA2016-10-111
Gravis Marketing2016-10-044
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Oregon Senate race?
Ron Wyden (D) won, by about 23.3 points (D+23.3).
When was the 2016 Oregon Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.