Actual result
D+23.3
Final polls said
D+29.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+26.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+22.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+26.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | D+19.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | D+31.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1595 | D+31.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 743 | D+28.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-11 | 654 | D+22.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-04 | 1248 | D+19.0 | 4 |