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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
South Dakota Senate
In the 2016 South Dakota Senate race, John R. Thune (R) won by about 44 points.
Actual result
R+43.7
Final polls said
R+29.6
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+38.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+34.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Remington Research Group | R+21.0 | 22.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Nielson Brothers Polling | R+19.0 | 24.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-0410
SurveyMonkey2016-10-288
Nielson Brothers Polling2016-10-2525
Remington Research Group2016-10-2023
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2016-10-196
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 South Dakota Senate race?
John R. Thune (R) won, by about 43.7 points (R+43.7).
When was the 2016 South Dakota Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.