Actual result
R+43.7
Final polls said
R+29.6
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+34.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+38.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+34.8 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+34.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Remington Research Group | R+21.0 | 22.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Nielson Brothers Polling | R+19.0 | 24.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 459 | R+34.0 | 10 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 298 | R+36.0 | 8 |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2016-10-25 | 600 | R+19.0 | 25 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-20 | 1115 | R+21.0 | 23 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-10-19 | 400 | R+38.0 | 6 |