← all past elections
Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Utah Senate
In the 2016 Utah Senate race, Mike Lee (R) won by about 41 points.
Actual result
R+41.1
Final polls said
R+33.1
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Y2 Analytics | R+40.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+46.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+33.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+32.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | R+24.0 | 17.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-0417
YouGov2016-11-045
Y2 Analytics2016-11-021
Monmouth University Polling Institute2016-11-018
Rasmussen Reports2016-10-309
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Utah Senate race?
Mike Lee (R) won, by about 41.1 points (R+41.1).
When was the 2016 Utah Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.