Actual result
R+41.1
Final polls said
R+33.1
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+38.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Y2 Analytics | R+40.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+38.8 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+46.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+33.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | R+32.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | R+24.0 | 17.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1479 | R+24.0 | 17 |
| YouGov | 2016-11-04 | 762 | R+46.0 | 5 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2016-11-02 | 500 | R+40.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-11-01 | 402 | R+33.0 | 8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-30 | 750 | R+32.0 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1078 | R+28.0 | 13 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-23 | 750 | R+30.0 | 11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-15 | 750 | R+32.0 | 9 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-11 | 403 | R+29.0 | 12 |