← all past elections
Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Utah Senate
In the 2016 Utah Senate race, Mike Lee (R) won by about 41 points.
Actual result
R+41.1
Final polls said
R+33.1
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Y2 Analytics | R+40.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+46.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+33.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+32.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | R+24.0 | 17.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-0417
YouGov2016-11-045
Y2 Analytics2016-11-021
Monmouth University Polling Institute2016-11-018
Rasmussen Reports2016-10-309
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Utah Senate race?
Mike Lee (R) won, by about 41.1 points (R+41.1).
When was the 2016 Utah Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.