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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Vermont Senate
In the 2016 Vermont Senate race, Patrick J. Leahy (D) won by about 28 points.
Actual result
D+28.2
Final polls said
D+39.7
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braun Research | D+37.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Castleton Polling Institute | D+37.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+51.0 | 22.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-0423
SurveyMonkey2016-10-283
Braun Research2016-10-219
The Castleton Polling Institute2016-10-079
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Vermont Senate race?
Patrick J. Leahy (D) won, by about 28.2 points (D+28.2).
When was the 2016 Vermont Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.