Actual result
D+28.2
Final polls said
D+39.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+38.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braun Research | D+37.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Castleton Polling Institute | D+37.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+38.9 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | D+51.0 | 22.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 454 | D+51.0 | 23 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 436 | D+31.0 | 3 |
| Braun Research | 2016-10-21 | 603 | D+37.0 | 9 |
| The Castleton Polling Institute | 2016-10-07 | 579 | D+37.0 | 9 |