Actual result
D+18.0
Final polls said
D+19.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+18.3 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Leger | D+16.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+16.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | D+22.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elway Research | D+24.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+12.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Emerson College | D+6.4 | 11.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | 2016-11-05 | 402 | D+16.0 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1451 | D+22.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-11-01 | 667 | D+12.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 745 | D+25.0 | 7 |
| Elway Research | 2016-10-21 | 502 | D+24.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-10 | 750 | D+16.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-26 | 700 | D+6.4 | 12 |
| Leger | 2016-09-13 | 505 | D+21.0 | 3 |