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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Washington Senate
In the 2016 Washington Senate race, Patty Murray (D) won by about 18 points.
Actual result
D+18.0
Final polls said
D+19.8
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leger | D+16.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+16.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+22.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elway Research | D+24.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+12.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | D+6.4 | 11.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Leger2016-11-052
SurveyMonkey2016-11-044
SurveyUSA2016-11-016
SurveyMonkey2016-10-287
Elway Research2016-10-216
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Washington Senate race?
Patty Murray (D) won, by about 18.0 points (D+18.0).
When was the 2016 Washington Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.