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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Washington Senate
In the 2016 Washington Senate race, Patty Murray (D) won by about 18 points.
Actual result
D+18.0
Final polls said
D+19.8
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leger | D+16.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+16.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+22.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elway Research | D+24.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+12.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | D+6.4 | 11.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Leger2016-11-052
SurveyMonkey2016-11-044
SurveyUSA2016-11-016
SurveyMonkey2016-10-287
Elway Research2016-10-216
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Washington Senate race?
Patty Murray (D) won, by about 18.0 points (D+18.0).
When was the 2016 Washington Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.