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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Wisconsin Senate
In the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race, Ron Johnson (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
D+3.8
12 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marquette University Law School | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+1.8 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | WPA Intelligence | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+8.0 | 11.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+12.0 | 15.4 | ✗ |
| 12 | Gravis Marketing | D+12.0 | 15.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 61% | 0.372 | ✗ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 82% | 0.672 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
19 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-042
Clarity Campaign Labs2016-11-016
Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center2016-10-315
Public Policy Polling2016-10-318
SurveyMonkey2016-10-283
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race?
Ron Johnson (R) won, by about 3.4 points (R+3.4).
When was the 2016 Wisconsin Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.