Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
D+3.8
12 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marquette University Law School | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+1.8 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+1.8 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | WPA Intelligence | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Emerson College | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+8.0 | 11.4 | ✗ |
| 12 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+12.0 | 15.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | Gravis Marketing | D+12.0 | 15.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 63% | 0.394 | ✗ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 82% | 0.672 | ✗ |
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2246 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-11-01 | 1129 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-10-31 | 500 | D+1.8 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-31 | 891 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1195 | EVEN | 3 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2016-10-28 | 1255 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-27 | 400 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2016-10-19 | 400 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2016-10-19 | 600 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-18 | 804 | D+6.0 | 9 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-17 | 403 | D+8.0 | 11 |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 2016-10-15 | 664 | D+12.0 | 15 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1076 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2016-10-08 | 878 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-06 | 993 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-04 | 1102 | D+12.0 | 15 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-10-04 | 500 | R+5.2 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-19 | 700 | D+9.9 | 13 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2016-09-17 | 642 | D+5.0 | 8 |