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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Wisconsin Senate
In the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race, Ron Johnson (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
D+3.8
12 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marquette University Law School | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+1.8 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | WPA Intelligence | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+8.0 | 11.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+12.0 | 15.4 | ✗ |
| 12 | Gravis Marketing | D+12.0 | 15.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 61% | 0.374 | ✗ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 82% | 0.672 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
19 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-042
Clarity Campaign Labs2016-11-016
Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center2016-10-315
Public Policy Polling2016-10-318
SurveyMonkey2016-10-283
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race?
Ron Johnson (R) won, by about 3.4 points (R+3.4).
When was the 2016 Wisconsin Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.