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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Illinois Governor
In the 2018 Illinois Governor race, J.B. Pritzker (D) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
D+15.7
Final polls said
D+16.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victory Research | D+16.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+16.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Repass | D+16.9 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ipsos | D+20.4 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | D+22.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Victory Research2018-11-020
Ipsos2018-10-015
Victory Research2018-09-290
Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute2018-09-266
Impact Research2018-09-230
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Illinois Governor race?
J.B. Pritzker (D) won, by about 15.7 points (D+15.7).
When was the 2018 Illinois Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.