Actual result
D+15.7
Final polls said
D+16.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victory Research | D+16.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+16.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+14.7 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Repass | D+16.9 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+20.4 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | D+22.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research | 2018-11-02 | 1208 | D+16.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-01 | 968 | D+20.4 | 5 |
| Victory Research | 2018-09-29 | 1208 | D+15.9 | 0 |
| Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | 2018-09-26 | 715 | D+22.0 | 6 |
| Impact Research | 2018-09-23 | 1007 | D+16.0 | 0 |
| Repass | 2018-09-09 | 1024 | D+16.9 | 1 |