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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Maryland Governor
In the 2018 Maryland Governor race, Larry Hogan (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+11.8
Final polls said
R+17.6
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+15.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | R+17.9 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | R+20.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | R+22.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement2018-10-068
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc.2018-10-036
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-09-253
Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics2018-09-1310
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Maryland Governor race?
Larry Hogan (R) won, by about 11.8 points (R+11.8).
When was the 2018 Maryland Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.