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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Maryland Governor
In the 2018 Maryland Governor race, Larry Hogan (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+11.8
Final polls said
R+17.6
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+15.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | R+17.9 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | R+20.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | R+22.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement2018-10-068
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc.2018-10-036
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-09-253
Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics2018-09-1310
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Maryland Governor race?
Larry Hogan (R) won, by about 11.8 points (R+11.8).
When was the 2018 Maryland Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.