Actual result
R+11.8
Final polls said
R+17.6
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+24.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+15.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | R+17.9 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | R+20.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | R+22.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+24.1 | 12.2 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | 2018-10-06 | 648 | R+20.0 | 8 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2018-10-03 | 806 | R+17.9 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2018-09-25 | 625 | R+15.0 | 3 |
| Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | 2018-09-13 | 472 | R+22.0 | 10 |