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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Nevada Governor
In the 2018 Nevada Governor race, Steve Sisolak (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.1
Final polls said
R+0.5
8 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox Populi Polling | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+1.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SSRS | D+1.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+0.2 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.1 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 9 | Marist College | R+4.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | Ipsos | R+4.8 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 11 | KFF | R+6.0 | 10.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 52% | 0.235 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 59% | 0.347 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-044
Emerson College2018-11-033
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-017
Trafalgar Group2018-10-316
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-10-272
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Nevada Governor race?
Steve Sisolak (D) won, by about 4.1 points (D+4.1).
When was the 2018 Nevada Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.