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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Nevada Governor
In the 2018 Nevada Governor race, Steve Sisolak (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.1
Final polls said
R+0.5
8 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox Populi Polling | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+1.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SSRS | D+1.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+0.2 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.1 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 9 | Marist College | R+4.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | Ipsos | R+4.8 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 11 | KFF | R+6.0 | 10.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 52% | 0.235 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 51% | 0.256 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-044
Emerson College2018-11-033
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-017
Trafalgar Group2018-10-316
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-10-272
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Nevada Governor race?
Steve Sisolak (D) won, by about 4.1 points (D+4.1).
When was the 2018 Nevada Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.