Actual result
D+4.1
Final polls said
R+0.5
8 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+4.2
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox Populi Polling | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+1.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SSRS | D+1.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+0.2 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+1.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.1 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 9 | Marist College | R+4.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | R+4.2 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | Ipsos | R+4.8 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 12 | KFF | R+6.0 | 10.1 | ✗ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-04 | 600 | D+0.2 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2018-11-03 | 1197 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-01 | 600 | R+3.4 | 7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-10-31 | 2587 | R+2.1 | 6 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-10-27 | 1400 | D+2.1 | 2 |
| SSRS | 2018-10-26 | 622 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-25 | 773 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-16 | 1137 | R+4.8 | 9 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-10-14 | 614 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-11 | 625 | R+5.2 | 9 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-09 | 642 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-02 | 574 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| SSRS | 2018-09-27 | 693 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| KFF | 2018-09-25 | 513 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-12 | 1039 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-09-11 | 700 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Suffolk University | 2018-09-07 | 500 | D+2.0 | 2 |