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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Texas Governor
In the 2018 Texas Governor race, Greg Abbott (R) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
R+13.3
Final polls said
R+17.1
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | R+13.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+14.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+15.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Vox Populi Polling | R+10.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | SSRS | R+18.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | R+8.3 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+19.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | R+20.4 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+22.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Dixie Strategies | R+26.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | The Eppstein Group | R+29.0 | 15.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
16 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-295
Quinnipiac University2018-10-251
Dixie Strategies2018-10-2513
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research2018-10-217
YouGov2018-10-186
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Texas Governor race?
Greg Abbott (R) won, by about 13.3 points (R+13.3).
When was the 2018 Texas Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.