Actual result
R+13.3
Final polls said
R+17.1
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+22.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | R+13.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+14.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+15.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Vox Populi Polling | R+10.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | SSRS | R+18.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | R+8.3 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+19.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | R+20.4 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+22.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | R+22.1 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Dixie Strategies | R+26.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | The Eppstein Group | R+29.0 | 15.7 | ✓ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-10-29 | 781 | R+8.3 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-10-25 | 1078 | R+14.0 | 1 |
| Dixie Strategies | 2018-10-25 | 588 | R+26.0 | 13 |
| University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 2018-10-21 | 1033 | R+20.4 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2018-10-18 | 927 | R+19.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-15 | 1298 | R+15.0 | 2 |
| SSRS | 2018-10-11 | 716 | R+18.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-10 | 800 | R+22.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-10-06 | 730 | R+20.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-03 | 500 | R+19.8 | 7 |
| The Eppstein Group | 2018-09-19 | 1200 | R+29.0 | 16 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-09-17 | 508 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-09-14 | 807 | R+19.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-10 | 992 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2018-09-08 | 800 | R+13.0 | 0 |
| Dixie Strategies | 2018-09-06 | 519 | R+18.9 | 6 |