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Toss-up · 2018 House
Alaska House
In the 2018 Alaska House race, Don Young (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+6.6
Final polls said
R+1.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lake Research Partners | R+4.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Alaska Survey Research | D+1.0 | 7.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 68% | 0.105 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-288
Lake Research Partners2018-10-153
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-135
Public Policy Polling2018-10-114
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-033
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Alaska House race?
Don Young (R) won, by about 6.6 points (R+6.6).
When was the 2018 Alaska House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.