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Toss-up · 2018 House
Alaska House
In the 2018 Alaska House race, Don Young (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+6.6
Final polls said
R+1.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lake Research Partners | R+4.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Alaska Survey Research | D+1.0 | 7.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 68% | 0.106 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-288
Lake Research Partners2018-10-153
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-135
Public Policy Polling2018-10-114
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-033
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Alaska House race?
Don Young (R) won, by about 6.6 points (R+6.6).
When was the 2018 Alaska House election held?
It was held in November 2018.