Actual result
R+6.6
Final polls said
R+1.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+7.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Lake Research Partners | R+4.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Alaska Survey Research | D+1.0 | 7.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 70% | 0.093 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | 2018-10-28 | 500 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2018-10-15 | 500 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2018-10-13 | 500 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-10-11 | 645 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2018-10-03 | 500 | R+3.7 | 3 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2018-09-23 | 500 | R+11.3 | 5 |