Actual result
D+9.5
Final polls said
D+10.9
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+10.9 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+7.2 | 2.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-28 | 502 | D+10.9 | 1 |