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Toss-up · 2018 House
Arizona House
In the 2018 Arizona House race, Ann Kirkpatrick (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+9.5
Final polls said
D+10.9
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+10.9 | 1.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-281
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Arizona House race?
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) won, by about 9.5 points (D+9.5).
When was the 2018 Arizona House election held?
It was held in November 2018.