Actual result
R+4.7
Final polls said
R+3.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lake Research Partners | R+4.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+6.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+8.4 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Noble Predictive Insights | R+10.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 76% | 0.059 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 69% | 0.099 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners | 2018-09-25 | 400 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2018-04-21 | 400 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2018-04-15 | 408 | EVEN | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2018-04-14 | 400 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2018-04-11 | 500 | R+10.0 | 5 |