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Toss-up · 2018 House
Arizona House
In the 2018 Arizona House race, Debbie Lesko (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.9
Final polls said
R+3.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noble Predictive Insights | R+10.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+6.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Lake Research Partners | R+4.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 79% | 0.042 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 69% | 0.099 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Lake Research Partners2018-09-257
Emerson College2018-04-211
Lake Research Partners2018-04-155
Emerson College2018-04-146
Noble Predictive Insights2018-04-115
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Arizona House race?
Debbie Lesko (R) won, by about 10.9 points (R+10.9).
When was the 2018 Arizona House election held?
It was held in November 2018.