Toss-up · 2018 House

Arizona House

In the 2018 Arizona House race, Debbie Lesko (R) won by about 11 points.

Actual result

R+10.9

Final polls said

R+3.3

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Noble Predictive Insights	R+10.0	0.9	✓
2	Emerson College	R+6.0	4.9	✓
3	Lake Research Partners	R+4.0	6.9	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 98%	0.001	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 89%	0.011	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 87%	0.017	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 69%	0.099	✓