Actual result
D+4.5
Final polls said
D+2.4
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+5.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.4 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+1.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 67% | 0.107 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 62% | 0.145 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 64% | 0.413 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-23 | 501 | D+2.4 | 2 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2018-09-20 | 726 | D+5.0 | 1 |