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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Josh Harder (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+4.5
Final polls said
D+2.4
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+5.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.4 | 2.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 67% | 0.107 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 62% | 0.145 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 64% | 0.408 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-232
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-201
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Josh Harder (D) won, by about 4.5 points (D+4.5).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.