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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Josh Harder (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+4.5
Final polls said
D+2.4
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+5.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.4 | 2.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 67% | 0.107 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 62% | 0.145 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 59% | 0.169 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-232
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-201
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Josh Harder (D) won, by about 4.5 points (D+4.5).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.