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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Jim Costa (D) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
D+15.1
Final polls said
D+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-09-164
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Jim Costa (D) won, by about 15.1 points (D+15.1).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.