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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, TJ Cox (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
R+11.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+11.0 | 11.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 63% | 0.393 | ✗ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 84% | 0.706 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 93% | 0.862 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.942 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-09-2212
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
TJ Cox (D) won, by about 0.8 points (D+0.8).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.