Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
R+11.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+14.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+11.0 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+14.6 | 15.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 63% | 0.393 | ✗ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 84% | 0.706 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 95% | 0.899 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.942 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2018-09-22 | 555 | R+11.0 | 12 |