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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Devin Nunes (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+5.4
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+5.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Strategies 360 | R+6.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | R+8.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+14.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 85% | 0.024 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-10-200
SurveyUSA2018-09-229
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-203
Strategies 3602018-09-121
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Devin Nunes (R) won, by about 5.4 points (R+5.4).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.