Actual result
R+5.4
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+5.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Strategies 360 | R+6.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | R+8.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+10.4 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+14.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-10-20 | 840 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-09-22 | 582 | R+14.0 | 9 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2018-09-20 | 912 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Strategies 360 | 2018-09-12 | 402 | R+6.0 | 1 |