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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Devin Nunes (R) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
R+5.4
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+5.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Strategies 360 | R+6.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | R+8.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+14.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 85% | 0.024 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-10-200
SurveyUSA2018-09-229
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-203
Strategies 3602018-09-121
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Devin Nunes (R) won, by about 5.4 points (R+5.4).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.