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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Katie Hill (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+8.7
Final polls said
R+4.4
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.4 | 13.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 50% | 0.247 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 59% | 0.352 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 72% | 0.520 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-2713
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-205
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-1811
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Katie Hill (D) won, by about 8.7 points (D+8.7).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.