Actual result
D+8.7
Final polls said
R+4.4
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+7.3
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.4 | 13.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+7.3 | 16.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 50% | 0.247 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 59% | 0.352 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 73% | 0.530 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-27 | 504 | R+4.4 | 13 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2018-09-20 | 650 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-18 | 500 | R+2.1 | 11 |