← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Katie Hill (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+8.7
Final polls said
R+4.4
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.4 | 13.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 50% | 0.247 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 59% | 0.352 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 72% | 0.521 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-2713
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-205
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-1811
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Katie Hill (D) won, by about 8.7 points (D+8.7).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.