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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Gilbert Cisneros (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.1
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tulchin Research | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+6.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 51% | 0.240 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.294 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 56% | 0.316 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-202
Tulchin Research2018-09-302
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-202
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-09-159
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Gilbert Cisneros (D) won, by about 3.1 points (D+3.1).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.