Actual result
D+3.1
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tulchin Research | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+4.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+6.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 51% | 0.240 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.294 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 58% | 0.341 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-20 | 496 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Tulchin Research | 2018-09-30 | 400 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2018-09-20 | 552 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-09-15 | 300 | R+6.0 | 9 |