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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Gilbert Cisneros (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.1
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tulchin Research | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+6.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 51% | 0.240 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.294 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 56% | 0.316 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-202
Tulchin Research2018-09-302
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-202
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-09-159
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Gilbert Cisneros (D) won, by about 3.1 points (D+3.1).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.