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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Tom McClintock (R) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
R+8.3
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clarity Campaign Labs | R+4.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 79% | 0.042 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 66% | 0.114 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Clarity Campaign Labs2018-10-154
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Tom McClintock (R) won, by about 8.3 points (R+8.3).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.