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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Katie Porter (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.1
Final polls said
R+3.6
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.3 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+7.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+4.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | TargetPoint | R+8.0 | 12.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.171 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.226 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 50% | 0.253 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-293
Public Opinion Strategies2018-10-168
TargetPoint2018-10-1512
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-231
GBAO2018-09-223
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Katie Porter (D) won, by about 4.1 points (D+4.1).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.