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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Katie Porter (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.1
Final polls said
R+3.6
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.3 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+7.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+4.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | TargetPoint | R+8.0 | 12.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.171 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.226 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 50% | 0.253 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-293
Public Opinion Strategies2018-10-168
TargetPoint2018-10-1512
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-231
GBAO2018-09-223
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Katie Porter (D) won, by about 4.1 points (D+4.1).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.