Actual result
D+4.1
Final polls said
R+3.6
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.3 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+7.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+3.6 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+4.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | TargetPoint | R+8.0 | 12.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.171 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 53% | 0.226 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 53% | 0.279 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-29 | 499 | D+1.3 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2018-10-16 | 400 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| TargetPoint | 2018-10-15 | 365 | R+8.0 | 12 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-23 | 518 | D+4.9 | 1 |
| GBAO | 2018-09-22 | 400 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2018-09-20 | 519 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2018-09-16 | 500 | D+3.0 | 1 |