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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Harley Rouda (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+7.1
Final polls said
R+5.3
4 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.7 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | EVEN | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+6.0 | 13.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | Thomas Partners Strategies | R+9.1 | 16.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.284 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 57% | 0.323 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 71% | 0.501 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-015
Thomas Partners Strategies2018-10-3016
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-10-1913
Thomas Partners Strategies2018-10-1815
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-207
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Harley Rouda (D) won, by about 7.1 points (D+7.1).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.