Actual result
D+7.1
Final polls said
R+5.3
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+7.9
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.7 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | EVEN | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+6.0 | 13.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+7.9 | 15.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | Thomas Partners Strategies | R+9.1 | 16.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.284 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 57% | 0.323 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 73% | 0.538 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-11-01 | 491 | D+1.7 | 5 |
| Thomas Partners Strategies | 2018-10-30 | 440 | R+9.1 | 16 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-10-19 | 372 | R+6.0 | 13 |
| Thomas Partners Strategies | 2018-10-18 | 440 | R+7.8 | 15 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2018-09-20 | 623 | EVEN | 7 |