← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Harley Rouda (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+7.1
Final polls said
R+5.3
4 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.7 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | EVEN | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+6.0 | 13.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | Thomas Partners Strategies | R+9.1 | 16.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 53% | 0.284 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 57% | 0.323 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 71% | 0.502 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-015
Thomas Partners Strategies2018-10-3016
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-10-1913
Thomas Partners Strategies2018-10-1815
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-207
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Harley Rouda (D) won, by about 7.1 points (D+7.1).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.