Actual result
D+12.8
Final polls said
D+10.9
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+14.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+14.7 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+5.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-31 | 500 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-21 | 500 | D+14.7 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-20 | 507 | D+9.7 | 3 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2018-09-20 | 551 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2018-09-19 | 400 | D+2.0 | 11 |