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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Mike Levin (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+12.8
Final polls said
D+10.9
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+14.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+14.7 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-10-316
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-212
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-203
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-201
Public Opinion Strategies2018-09-1911
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Mike Levin (D) won, by about 12.8 points (D+12.8).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.