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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Mike Levin (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+12.8
Final polls said
D+10.9
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+14.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+14.7 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-10-316
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-212
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-203
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-201
Public Opinion Strategies2018-09-1911
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Mike Levin (D) won, by about 12.8 points (D+12.8).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.