Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | R+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tulchin Research | R+0.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+7.8 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+11.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 76% | 0.058 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 75% | 0.065 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 69% | 0.094 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-27 | 547 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Tulchin Research | 2018-09-30 | 400 | R+0.7 | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2018-09-24 | 348 | R+11.0 | 8 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2018-09-20 | 527 | R+2.0 | 1 |