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Toss-up · 2018 House
California House
In the 2018 California House race, Duncan Hunter (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | R+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tulchin Research | R+0.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+11.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 76% | 0.058 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 73% | 0.075 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 69% | 0.094 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-10-270
Tulchin Research2018-09-303
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-09-248
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2018-09-201
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 California House race?
Duncan Hunter (R) won, by about 3.4 points (R+3.4).
When was the 2018 California House election held?
It was held in November 2018.