Toss-up · 2018 House

California House

In the 2018 California House race, Duncan Hunter (R) won by about 3 points.

Actual result

R+3.4

Final polls said

R+3.0

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	SurveyUSA	R+3.0	0.4	✓
2	University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies	R+2.0	1.4	✓
3	Tulchin Research	R+0.7	2.7	✓
4	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+11.0	7.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 82%	0.032	✓
2	The Economist	Rep 76%	0.058	✓
3	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
5	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 73%	0.074	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 69%	0.094	✓