Actual result
R+8.0
Final polls said
R+10.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | R+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+13.5 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | R+15.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | 2018-10-30 | 500 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Change Research | 2018-10-28 | 485 | R+15.0 | 7 |