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Toss-up · 2018 House
Colorado House
In the 2018 Colorado House race, Scott Tipton (R) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
R+8.0
Final polls said
R+10.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | R+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | R+15.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns2018-10-303
Change Research2018-10-287
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Colorado House race?
Scott Tipton (R) won, by about 8.0 points (R+8.0).
When was the 2018 Colorado House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.