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Toss-up · 2018 House
Colorado House
In the 2018 Colorado House race, Jason Crow (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+11.2
Final polls said
D+6.8
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+11.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+8.7 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | TargetPoint | D+5.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Tarrance Group | D+2.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
TargetPoint2018-10-156
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-153
Normington, Petts & Associates2018-09-200
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-131
Tarrance Group2018-09-129
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Colorado House race?
Jason Crow (D) won, by about 11.2 points (D+11.2).
When was the 2018 Colorado House election held?
It was held in November 2018.