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Toss-up · 2018 House
Colorado House
In the 2018 Colorado House race, Jason Crow (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+11.2
Final polls said
D+6.8
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+11.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+8.7 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | TargetPoint | D+5.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Tarrance Group | D+2.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 83% | 0.028 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
TargetPoint2018-10-156
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-153
Normington, Petts & Associates2018-09-200
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-131
Tarrance Group2018-09-129
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Colorado House race?
Jason Crow (D) won, by about 11.2 points (D+11.2).
When was the 2018 Colorado House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.