Actual result
D+11.2
Final polls said
D+6.8
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+11.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+8.7 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | TargetPoint | D+5.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+2.5 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Tarrance Group | D+2.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 82% | 0.034 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TargetPoint | 2018-10-15 | 385 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-15 | 506 | D+8.7 | 3 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2018-09-20 | 400 | D+11.0 | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-13 | 500 | D+10.4 | 1 |
| Tarrance Group | 2018-09-12 | 400 | D+2.0 | 9 |