Actual result
R+6.0
Final polls said
R+2.1
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | R+6.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | WPA Intelligence | R+7.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Bold Blue Campaigns | R+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | St. Pete Polls | R+1.9 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.7 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | GQR | EVEN | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 6.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 67% | 0.106 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.141 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 53% | 0.218 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2018-11-05 | 1194 | R+1.9 | 4 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-18 | 499 | R+0.7 | 5 |
| Remington Research Group | 2018-10-17 | 1369 | R+6.0 | 0 |
| GQR | 2018-10-17 | 400 | EVEN | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-11 | 591 | EVEN | 6 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2018-10-03 | 418 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Bold Blue Campaigns | 2018-09-24 | 500 | R+3.0 | 3 |