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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Ross Spano (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+6.0
Final polls said
R+2.1
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | R+6.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | WPA Intelligence | R+7.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Bold Blue Campaigns | R+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | St. Pete Polls | R+1.9 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.7 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | GQR | EVEN | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 6.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 66% | 0.115 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.141 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 53% | 0.218 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
St. Pete Polls2018-11-054
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-185
Remington Research Group2018-10-170
GQR2018-10-176
SurveyUSA2018-10-116
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Ross Spano (R) won, by about 6.0 points (R+6.0).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.