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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Ross Spano (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+6.0
Final polls said
R+2.1
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | R+6.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | WPA Intelligence | R+7.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Bold Blue Campaigns | R+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | St. Pete Polls | R+1.9 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+0.7 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | GQR | EVEN | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 6.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 62% | 0.141 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 53% | 0.218 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
St. Pete Polls2018-11-054
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-185
Remington Research Group2018-10-170
GQR2018-10-176
SurveyUSA2018-10-116
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Ross Spano (R) won, by about 6.0 points (R+6.0).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.