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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Vern Buchanan (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+9.1
Final polls said
R+8.7
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | R+9.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+10.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | St. Pete Polls | R+7.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 85% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Opinion Strategies2018-10-061
St. Pete Polls2018-10-012
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab2018-10-010
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Vern Buchanan (R) won, by about 9.1 points (R+9.1).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.