Actual result
R+9.1
Final polls said
R+8.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | R+9.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+10.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+10.9 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | St. Pete Polls | R+7.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 87% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 85% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2018-10-06 | 400 | R+10.0 | 1 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2018-10-01 | 1248 | R+7.1 | 2 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2018-10-01 | 551 | R+9.0 | 0 |