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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Vern Buchanan (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+9.1
Final polls said
R+8.7
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | R+9.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+10.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | St. Pete Polls | R+7.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 85% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Opinion Strategies2018-10-061
St. Pete Polls2018-10-012
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab2018-10-010
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Vern Buchanan (R) won, by about 9.1 points (R+9.1).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.