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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Brian Mast (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+8.6
Final polls said
R+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+9.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | R+3.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-10-280
Global Strategy Group2018-09-286
Public Policy Polling2018-09-176
Global Strategy Group2018-09-133
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Brian Mast (R) won, by about 8.6 points (R+8.6).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.