Actual result
R+8.6
Final polls said
R+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+9.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+11.9 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | R+3.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-10-28 | 475 | R+9.0 | 0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2018-09-28 | 400 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-09-17 | 533 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2018-09-13 | 600 | R+6.0 | 3 |