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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Brian Mast (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+8.6
Final polls said
R+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+9.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | R+3.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-10-280
Global Strategy Group2018-09-286
Public Policy Polling2018-09-176
Global Strategy Group2018-09-133
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Brian Mast (R) won, by about 8.6 points (R+8.6).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.