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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+1.8
Final polls said
D+0.9
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | D+2.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | D+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+0.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.229 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 55% | 0.302 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 56% | 0.318 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-211
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-10-063
GBAO2018-09-290
GQR2018-09-251
Public Policy Polling2018-09-171
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) won, by about 1.8 points (D+1.8).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.