Actual result
D+1.8
Final polls said
D+0.9
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | D+2.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | D+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+0.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+4.6 | 6.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.229 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 55% | 0.302 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 59% | 0.350 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-21 | 499 | D+0.9 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2018-10-06 | 625 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| GBAO | 2018-09-29 | 500 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| GQR | 2018-09-25 | 500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-09-17 | 511 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-15 | 509 | R+3.5 | 5 |