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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+1.8
Final polls said
D+0.9
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | D+2.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | D+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+0.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.229 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 55% | 0.302 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 56% | 0.318 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-211
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-10-063
GBAO2018-09-290
GQR2018-09-251
Public Policy Polling2018-09-171
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) won, by about 1.8 points (D+1.8).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.