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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Donna E. Shalala (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.0
Final polls said
D+8.6
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+10.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+2.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+9.0 | 15.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 73% | 0.074 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.076 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 64% | 0.127 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Impact Research2018-10-274
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-171
Impact Research2018-10-131
McLaughlin & Associates2018-10-1315
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-10-038
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Donna E. Shalala (D) won, by about 6.0 points (D+6.0).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.