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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Donna E. Shalala (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.0
Final polls said
D+8.6
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+10.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+2.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+9.0 | 15.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 73% | 0.075 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.076 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 64% | 0.127 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Impact Research2018-10-274
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-171
Impact Research2018-10-131
McLaughlin & Associates2018-10-1315
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-10-038
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Donna E. Shalala (D) won, by about 6.0 points (D+6.0).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.