Actual result
D+6.0
Final polls said
D+8.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+10.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+1.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+2.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+9.0 | 15.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.076 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 71% | 0.087 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 64% | 0.127 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2018-10-27 | 500 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-17 | 542 | D+7.2 | 1 |
| Impact Research | 2018-10-13 | 500 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2018-10-13 | 400 | R+9.0 | 15 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2018-10-03 | 625 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2018-09-12 | 400 | R+9.0 | 15 |