Actual result
R+12.6
Final polls said
R+2.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pete Polls | R+5.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+3.4 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | GQR | EVEN | 12.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 65% | 0.120 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.154 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2018-10-03 | 400 | EVEN | 13 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2018-09-19 | 981 | R+5.0 | 8 |