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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Michael Waltz (R) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
R+12.6
Final polls said
R+2.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pete Polls | R+5.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | EVEN | 12.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 65% | 0.120 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.154 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 58% | 0.180 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GQR2018-10-0313
St. Pete Polls2018-09-198
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Michael Waltz (R) won, by about 12.6 points (R+12.6).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.