← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Michael Waltz (R) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
R+12.6
Final polls said
R+2.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pete Polls | R+5.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | EVEN | 12.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 79% | 0.046 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 65% | 0.120 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.154 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GQR2018-10-0313
St. Pete Polls2018-09-198
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Michael Waltz (R) won, by about 12.6 points (R+12.6).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.