Actual result
D+1.0
Final polls said
D+0.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+1.5 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+6.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | R+4.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 51% | 0.255 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 52% | 0.272 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 64% | 0.407 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 395 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-11-01 | 421 | D+2.1 | 1 |
| Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies | 2018-10-21 | 400 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | 2018-10-15 | 500 | R+4.0 | 5 |