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Toss-up · 2018 House
Georgia House
In the 2018 Georgia House race, Lucy McBath (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.0
Final polls said
D+0.8
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+6.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | R+4.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 52% | 0.236 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 51% | 0.255 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 64% | 0.407 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-035
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-011
Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies2018-10-212
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns2018-10-155
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Georgia House race?
Lucy McBath (D) won, by about 1.0 points (D+1.0).
When was the 2018 Georgia House election held?
It was held in November 2018.