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Toss-up · 2018 House
Georgia House
In the 2018 Georgia House race, Lucy McBath (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.0
Final polls said
D+0.8
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+6.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | R+4.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 52% | 0.236 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 51% | 0.255 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 64% | 0.407 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-035
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-011
Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies2018-10-212
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns2018-10-155
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Georgia House race?
Lucy McBath (D) won, by about 1.0 points (D+1.0).
When was the 2018 Georgia House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.