Actual result
R+0.1
Final polls said
R+6.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | R+6.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+17.2 | 17.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+27.0 | 26.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 78% | 0.050 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | 2018-10-15 | 500 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2018-10-13 | 400 | R+27.0 | 27 |