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Toss-up · 2018 House
Iowa House
In the 2018 Iowa House race, Abby Finkenauer (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
D+9.2
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+2.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+11.9 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 81% | 0.035 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.082 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-317
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-301
The Polling Company Inc.2018-10-123
The Polling Company Inc.2018-10-034
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-199
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Iowa House race?
Abby Finkenauer (D) won, by about 5.1 points (D+5.1).
When was the 2018 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.