Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
D+9.2
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+4.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+2.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+11.9 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 81% | 0.035 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.082 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-10-31 | 353 | D+11.9 | 7 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-30 | 452 | D+6.5 | 1 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2018-10-12 | 400 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2018-10-03 | 400 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-19 | 502 | D+14.2 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-07 | 250 | D+4.1 | 1 |