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Toss-up · 2018 House
Iowa House
In the 2018 Iowa House race, Abby Finkenauer (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
D+9.2
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+2.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+11.9 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 81% | 0.035 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.082 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-317
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-301
The Polling Company Inc.2018-10-123
The Polling Company Inc.2018-10-034
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-199
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Iowa House race?
Abby Finkenauer (D) won, by about 5.1 points (D+5.1).
When was the 2018 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2018.