Actual result
D+12.2
Final polls said
D+12.9
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+11.9 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+12.9 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-10-31 | 373 | D+12.9 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-09-10 | 425 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-07 | 250 | D+24.7 | 13 |