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Toss-up · 2018 House
Iowa House
In the 2018 Iowa House race, Dave Loebsack (D) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
D+12.2
Final polls said
D+12.9
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+12.9 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-311
Gravis Marketing2018-09-106
Emerson College2018-09-0713
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Iowa House race?
Dave Loebsack (D) won, by about 12.2 points (D+12.2).
When was the 2018 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2018.