Toss-up · 2018 House

Iowa House

In the 2018 Iowa House race, Dave Loebsack (D) won by about 12 points.

Actual result

D+12.2

Final polls said

D+12.9

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+12.9	0.7	✓
2	Gravis Marketing	D+6.0	6.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 98%	0.001	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 96%	0.002	✓