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Toss-up · 2018 House
Iowa House
In the 2018 Iowa House race, Cindy Axne (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.2
Final polls said
D+1.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.2 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+0.9 | 1.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.231 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 51% | 0.257 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-311
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-260
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-291
Emerson College2018-09-0718
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Iowa House race?
Cindy Axne (D) won, by about 2.2 points (D+2.2).
When was the 2018 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2018.