Actual result
D+2.2
Final polls said
D+1.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.8
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.2 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+0.9 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+3.8 | 5.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 52% | 0.231 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 51% | 0.257 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-10-31 | 380 | D+0.9 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-26 | 504 | D+2.2 | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-29 | 502 | D+1.3 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-07 | 260 | R+16.0 | 18 |