Actual result
R+3.3
Final polls said
R+8.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.8 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | R+1.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Expedition Strategies | R+6.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+9.3 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+11.9 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | WPA Intelligence | R+18.0 | 14.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 76% | 0.057 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-11-02 | 423 | R+4.8 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-31 | 356 | R+9.3 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2018-10-28 | 631 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2018-10-23 | 401 | R+18.0 | 15 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2018-10-03 | 400 | R+20.0 | 17 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-07 | 240 | R+10.9 | 8 |
| Expedition Strategies | 2018-09-07 | 380 | R+6.0 | 3 |