Toss-up · 2018 House

Iowa House

In the 2018 Iowa House race, Steve King (R) won by about 3 points.

Actual result

R+3.3

Final polls said

R+8.3

4 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	The New York Times/Siena College	R+4.8	1.4	✓
2	Change Research	R+1.0	2.3	✓
3	Expedition Strategies	R+6.0	2.7	✓
4	Emerson College	R+9.3	6.0	✓
5	WPA Intelligence	R+18.0	14.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 95%	0.002	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 89%	0.012	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 85%	0.022	✓
4	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 76%	0.057	✓
5	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
6	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓