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Toss-up · 2018 House
Iowa House
In the 2018 Iowa House race, Steve King (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.3
Final polls said
R+8.3
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.8 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | R+1.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Expedition Strategies | R+6.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+9.3 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | WPA Intelligence | R+18.0 | 14.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 76% | 0.057 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-11-021
Emerson College2018-10-316
Change Research2018-10-282
WPA Intelligence2018-10-2315
WPA Intelligence2018-10-0317
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Iowa House race?
Steve King (R) won, by about 3.3 points (R+3.3).
When was the 2018 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2018.